The long road: from ENIAC to iPad

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Redaktsioon seisuga 9. mai 2012, kell 10:31 kasutajalt WikiHaldur (arutelu | kaastöö)
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Note: this document is a working copy and subject to change.


What was in the beginning...

... is still under discussion (both in IT and otherwise).

But it is likely that humans started to compute soon after the first days. Besides fingers, sticks and stones, one of the first computing devices was probably the abacus that came into use as early as about 2700-3000BC (different sources offer different dates, e.g. Ifrah[1] suggests 2700BC). Another device that could be considered a sort of computer was the weighing scale used to compare the weight of an object with another. A very interesting find has been the Antikythera mechanism which was recovered only in 1900AD but is thought to be an astronomical computer dating back to 100BC [2].

Some sources[3] suggest that Leonardo da Vinci designed also a mechanical calculator (around 1492-93). The calculating clock by German professor of Hebrew and astronomy Wilhelm Schickard allowed addition and subtraction of up to six-digit numbers - the blueprints of the machine were rediscovered only in the 19th century [4]. On the other hand, the device built by Blaise Pascal - known as the Arithmetic Machine, Pascal's Calculator and Pascaline - has been known for a long time and considered by many the forefather of today's computers. A number of sources suggest the initial motive for building the device to help his father Étienne who in 1639 was appointed the King's commissioner of taxes, thus having to perform a lot of complicated calculations[5].

Older people may still recall a calculating device called the slide rule which was once taught at schools (in the former USSR, it went on up to the 80s - partially due to the electronic calculators being largely unavailable) and is sometimes still seen in the hands of 'old school' engineers. It was invented in 1632 in Oxford by a mathematician and Anglican minister[6] William Oughtred who built his invention on the logarithmic scale by another Englishman, Edmund Gunter. The cursor or runner (the sliding window with a marker) was added by John Robertson in 1775[7] (other sources point to French artillery lieutenant Amédée Mannheim, who is said to give the rule its present form in 1859).

Modern computers use binary number system. In the modern context, it was first formalized by Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz (who also built his version of calculator called the Stepped Reckoner in 1673), the traces of binary system however lead to a much more ancient time (some sources point to ancient India and a mathematician named Pingala living in the 2nd or 4th century before Christ). An early example of a programmable device can be found in the Jacquard loom by a French weaver and merchant Joseph Marie Jacquard. The loom used punched cards to set the pattern for the textile.

In 1822, English professor Charles Babbage designs the Difference Engine, followed by the larger and more complex Analytical Engine in 1830. Although both machines were not finished, they are considered an important step in the history of computing (some of them have been built lately to prove the validity of their concepts[8]. The Difference Engine was powered by cranking a handle[9], the Analytical Engine was to be steam-powered.

Quite exceptionally for the period, Babbage was assisted by a young lady named Augusta Ada Byron, daughter of the famous English poet and later Countess of Lovelace. Babbage considered her one of the few people understanding his ideas, calling him "the Enchantress of Numbers"[10]. She prepared a set of instructions (algorithm) for the to-be-built Analytical Engine that has been validated by later researchers as correct. Thus she is often considered the first programmer in the world - among other things, the new programming language designed by the US Department of Defense in 1979 was named Ada after her.

In 1837, Samuel Morse invents the Morse code, the first globally used method for data transmission (telegraph in its heyday was perhaps the most extensive unified information system before Internet). Likewise, the punched telegraph tape invented in 1857 by Charles Wheatstone was the first widely used medium for data recording, becoming the forerunner of floppies, CD/DVD records and memory sticks.


The first modern computer

... is a hotly debated issue again. Various suggestions have been made, but four of them seem to be the most common:

  1. ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator And Computer) was launched in 1943 at the University of Pennsylvania by a team led by John W. Mauchly and J. Presper Eckert[11].
  2. ABC (Atanasoff-Berry Computer) was completed a year earlier, in 1942, at the Iowa State College by John Vincent Atanasoff and Clifford Berry[12]. It is interesting to note that the bitter rivalry between the two machines and their builders spanned over several decades - while ENIAC was initially considered first, the 1973 court case decided in favour of Atanasoff and Berry[13]. On the other hand, several other factors show ENIAC as a more complete machine that also found more use.
  3. The Colossus series were built by British cryptanalysts during the WWII to assist in breaking German codes. Yet, as the ABC, the were not 'complete' computers and were dedicated to a single type of tasks[14].
  4. Z3 and other machines built by Konrad Zuse in Germany. The original Z3 was destroyed in the war and the work of Zuse fell into obscurity. Yet his machines could be perhaps considered the closest to the modern ones[15]. It used the binary system (opposed to ENIAC's decimal) and Zuse's programming language called Plankalkül is said to contain most of the features of ALGOL, the language from the 50s usually considered the first[16]. On the other hand, Z3 was an electro-mechanical, not an electronic device. Thus, the whole matter is still largely undecided.


The Stone Age

In 1947, one of the best-known anecdotal stories in computing took place - a computer operator (most sources suggest that it was 'Grandma COBOL' or Grace Murray Hopper) searched for a reason of the computer not working, and finding a dead moth between two relay points, taped it to the log book and added the notice "The first actual case of a bug being found". This is considered the birth of the computing terms of "bug" (error), "debug" (finding and fixing errors) and "debugger" (error finding/fixing software[17].

In 1950, Alan Turing formulated the Turing test to determine if a machine is capable of intelligent behaviour[18]. Simply put: the machine is considered intelligent if a human interacting with it cannot determine if he/she is interacting with another human or a machine. During the same year, the first computer named MESM is also built in the Soviet Union. While the Communist countries had a good share of talented mathematicians to provide a theoretical base for technology, they fell seriously behind in the realm of computing - two main reasons being the closedness as well as the overall ignorance (including labelling of many kinds of actual research like psychology and cybernetics 'Western pseudoscience'[19]) and ineffectiveness of the regime[20].

During the fifties, two important technologies contributed towards the miniaturization of computing technology - in 1954, Texas Instruments started to mass-produce [1] (which were actually invented already in 1934) and in 1958, the same company introduces the integrated circuit.

Another noteworthy person who was clearly ahead of his time in the 60s was Douglas Engelbart - the computer mouse was first patented by him in 1963[21] (but became widely used only in the 80s). He went on to develop hypertext (the most common example of the principle nowadays being the Web with its linked pages) and by 1968, an early graphical user interface (which is today used by all widely used computer systems, examples being MS Windows, Apple OS X as well as several desktop systems of variants of Unix and Linux). His 1968 demonstration of then-future computer technologies was later nicknamed The Mother of All Demos[22].

In 1966, IBM develops the first magnetic disk systems. At first, the "hard disks" of the day were huge, cupboard-like devices which gave rise to various 'urban legends' - e.g. the one about walking disk drives[23]. However, some years later in 1971, the company already produced the first generation of the floppy disks, the 8-inch diskette[24].

The year of 1969 has several important landmarks in the history of IT. It can be considered the birth year of Internet, as the first packet switching network (the communication is done by small chunks of information called packages, which travel independently over the network; the principle is a basic one in today's Internet as well) connects four universities in the US[25]. The AT&T develops the first version of Unix, the first computer operating system being widely portable[26] and eventually becoming a parent for today's two well-known systems in Apple OS X and the Linux family.


The Bronze Age

In 1972, Intel released the first 8-bit microprocessor - with its frequency of 200kHz, it looks antique in comparison with todays 2GHz+ models, yet it was an important step towards personal computers. In the same year, two young men named William Henry Gates III and Paul Allen, create their first company to sell a simple system for traffic density analysis - both the device and the company were called Traf-O-Data. On another front, the newly formed company called Atari releases its first commercial video game titled Pong - while not the first computer game in history, Pong is definitely a forefather of game consoles like Nintendo, Playstation or X-Box. And finally, diskettes started to shrink - the new ones went from 8 inches to mere [2].

The landmarks of 1973 include the CP/M, an operating system by Gary Kildall which among other machines was also popular on various computers built in the Eastern Bloc of the day (e.g. the Juku in Estonia); the specification of Ethernet by Bob Metcalfe which is still today the main standard for local computer networks; IBM releases its first series of hard disks codenamed Winchester - the name would become the generic term for hard disks for some time.

1975 is the birth year of a big player in the world of software. Two guys from Traf-O-Data wrpte their version of the well-known BASIC programming language and renamed their company Microsoft (at first, in the form of 'Micro-Soft'). They also created a substantial controversy by starting to ask money for every copy of their software, a concept totally alien back then. Bill's attempt to convince users that the new model works well was not considered very successful[27]. Two signs from that year indicated the growing mainstreaming of computers - a retail store chain specializing on computers ('Computer Store') was founded, just as the first specialized magazine titled "Byte".

Apple was founded just a year later in 1976 by Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. While Gates and Allen started with and stayed mostly on software, Apple started out as a hardware company selling the do-it-yourself type Apple I.0

It perhaps noteworthy that even if Microsoft Excel is nearly synonymous with spreadsheet software for many people, the first spreadsheet clearly predates Microsoft system - the first was VisiCalc, released in 1979.

While Microsoft definitely has many friends, the controversies surrounding the company started early on as well. There are several different story versions about the 1980-81 birth of MS DOS, the first best-selling software by Microsoft - the official version by the company[28] recalls buying the system from the Seattle Computer Products, some more critical voices suggest far less favourable scenarios[29]. On the hardware front, Sony released the highly successful [3.5-inch diskette], and in co-operation with Philips, develops the first version of CD audio standard.

Microsoft's historical dominance started with their luck (or business skill, depending on the view) to strike a deal with IBM to supply operating system for their new |Personal Computer Model 5150], which went on to be the first of the whole generation of personal computers. Among three candidates, IBM chose MS-DOS and the huge sales of the computer translated into a huge success for the operating system vendor.


The Iron Age

1982 was the year of rapid spread for the IBM's PC - an important reason being the emergence of the PC compatibles or "PC clones". Due to some technical factors, IBM could not withhold others from copying the design - the fact that was initially considered a curse but came out a blessing. At the time of its birth, IBM PC was one of the many kinds of personal computers available, by 1986 the market share of PC compatibles had exceeded 50%[30]. A number of technically more advanced designed were forced out of the market. This could be seen an important lesson about the power of open standards. The same year, Mouse Systems introduced their mouse for PCs, yet it remained a little more than curiosity for several years (largely up to the emergence of Microsoft Windows 3.0 in 1990; in contrast, Apple made mouse an integral part of their systems remarkably earlier).

In 1983, IBM produced a next model of PCs, the 5160 or [PC XT], which was the first model with a (typically 10MB) hard disk. Apple counters with Lisa and IIe - also, one of their trademark models, the Macintosh (giving its name to all later Macs) was released about then (different sources mention either 1983 or 1984). Microsoft announced the initial version of a new environment named Windows - yet it was released only in 1985 and became practically usable (more or less so) with the version 3.0 in 1990.

It is noteworthy that while there was no Windows, there were already several providers of what we nowadays know as office software - e.g. Lotus 1-2-3, WordPerfect, Multi-Tool Word and others. Yet in the realm of word processing, perhaps the most successful software product of the early 80s was WordStar - it was originally designed for CP/M, but due to good portability took soon over the PC market as well[31].

In general it was the time of entrenchment of the proprietary, commercial and closed software model. Yet there was an 'old school hacker' named Richard Stallman who decided to rebel against it - at the end of 1983, he announced a plan to re-write the widely used Unix operating system and give it freely away to anyone interested[32]. While many people shrugged on the idea, he was determined and launched the GNU project which became the foundation of the Free Software movement. This topic will be covered more thoroughly in the next lectures.


1984. IBM laseb välja [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PC_AT">PC AT</a>, IBM Portable PC ning EGA graafikaadapteri. Philips hakkab tootma PC-dele CD-ROM-e. Silicon Graphics alustab võimsate 3D-graafikatööjaamade tootmist. HP toob turule LaserJeti printeriseeria. [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mit">MIT-s</a> töötatakse välja [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X_Window_System">X Window System</a> (seega on praeguseni Unixitel-Linuxitel pruugitav graafiline keskkond üksjagu vanem kui MS Windows). Aleksei Pazhitnov kirjutab Moskvas prototüübi ühele tuntuima arvutimängule - [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetris">Tetrisele</a> (üht selle klooni mängis siinkirjutaja mõni aasta hiljem eestikeelsena Totruse nime all; selles peeti isegi TTÜ meistrivõistlusi).

1985. Apple'i asutaja Steve Jobs lahkub (lüüakse minema?) firmast ja asutab NeXT Inc-i. Microsoft üllitab Windows 1.0

1986. IBM PC AT saab 8 MHz protsessori. Microsoft annab välja MS-DOS 3.2.

1987. Sun tutvustab SPARC-tööjaama, IBM demonstreerib 20 MHz taktsagedusega [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I386">386-protsessoriga PC-d</a>. IBM loob PC-DOS 3.3, Microsoft toob turule Windows 2.0 ja Windows/386, ühiselt tuuakse avalikkuse ette uus operatsioonisüsteem [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Os/2">OS/2</a>. Ilmub VGA graafikastandard. Inteli ja AMD rahumeelne koostöö saab otsa - toimub esimene kohtuvaidlus.

1988. Intelilt 25 MHz 386DX ja 16 MHz 386SX. [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scsi">SCSI-liidesestandard</a> leiab ametlikku tunnustust. Microsoftilt ilmub MS-DOS 4.0. Asutatakse Creative Labs (tuntud eelkõige SoundBlaster-tooteseeria järgi). HP alustab DeskJet-printeriseeria tootmist.

1989. Intelilt ilmub [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_80486">486-protsessor</a>. Pannakse alus [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PCMCIA">PCMCIA</a> standardile. Creative Labs toob turule SoundBlasteri.

1990. Ilmub [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_3.0">Microsoft Windows 3.0</a> - seeria esimene arvestatav toode. IBM töötab välja XGA graafikastandardi. Berkeley Ülikooli 4.3BSD vabaneb täiesti AT&T Unixi kommertskoodist ja moodustab omaette tarkvaraperekonna [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSD">BSD Unixite</a> näol.


Internetiaja algus (laiemas mõttes)

1991. Linus Torvalds saadab uudisegruppidesse teate "uue Unixi-laadse operatsioonisüsteemi" loomisest - [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linux">Linuxi</a> sünd. Microsoft arendab Windowsi ja OS/2 ideid segades välja Windows NT 3.0, ilmub ka MS-DOS 5.0. SunOS muutub Solariseks. Creative Labsi SB Pro Deluxe'ist saab esimene PC stereohelikaart ja HP ScanJet IIc-st esimene värviskanner. Intel tutvustab PCI-siinistandardit. Internetti lubatakse esmakordselt kasutada kommertseesmärkidel - algul tekib E-turundus, siis ka E-kaubandus ja E-äri, järk-järgult aga saab Internetist igapäevaelu lahutamatu osa.

1992. Microsoftilt ilmub [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_3.1x">Windows 3.1</a>. William H. Gates tunnistatakse USA rikkaimaks inimeseks.

1993. Intel esitleb Pentium-protsessorit. Pinnacle Micro esitleb CD-R-i. Microsoftilt ilmub [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_NT">NT</a> 3.1. Windowsi tarkvara müügimaht ületab esmakordselt DOS-i oma. Mitme suurfirma ühistööna töötatakse välja Plug-and-Play standard. Berkeley ülikooli Unixi-variandist nimega BSD arenevad umbes ühel ajal välja [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FreeBSD">FreeBSD</a>, [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBSD">OpenBSD</a> ja [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NetBSD">NetBSD</a>, tänaseni üsna edukad vabad Unixi variandid.

1994. Ilmub [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_3.1x">Windows 3.11</a> (for Workgroups), NT 3.5 (Workstation ja Server -versioonid) ja viimane MS-DOS: 6.22. Apple töötab välja QuickTime -multimeediastandardi. Luuakse Netscape 1.0. Motorola, Apple ja IBM üritavad luua riistvaraplatvormi, mis toetaks kõiki levinud operatsioonisüsteeme peale Windowsi. Iomega töötab välja [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zip_drive">ZIP-kettad</a>. Intel tunnistab, et ca 2 miljonil müüdud Pentium-protsessoril on probleeme ujukomatehetega. Ilmub [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USB">USB</a> standardi esimene avalikum tööversioon 0.7.

1995. Microsoft teeb Netscape'ile ettepaneku mitte luua oma brauserist Windowsi versiooni. Netscape'i keeldumine vallandab nn. brauserisõja. Intel toob turule P6 (Pentium Pro) protsessori. Microsoftilt ilmub [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_95">Windows 95</a>, Office 95 ja NT 3.51. DVD-standardi esmatutvustus. Alguse saavad kaks tänaseks väga levinud ühendusstandardit [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_1394_interface">IEEE 1394</a> (FireWire) ja USB.

1996. Microsoftilt ilmub NT 4.0 ja Office 97 esmaversioon. Netscape'i Navigator 2.02-le vastukaaluna toob MS välja esimese reaalselt kasutatava Internet Exploreri versiooni 2.0.

1997. Microsofti monopoli-kohtuasja algus.

1998. Intelilt ilmub Pentium II -protsessor. Microsoft annab välja [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_98">Windows 98</a>. Netscape kuulutab oma Navigatori lähtekoodi vabaks, aasta lõpus ostab AOL Netscape'i ära. Apple toob välja iMac-i ja jõuab üle mõne aja taas kasumisse. Võrgufirmade aktsiate maruline tõus USA turul, võrguäri buumi algus. USB 1.1 standard leiab laia kasutajaskonna ning sellest saab pikkamööda üks valitsevaid välisseadmete ühendusviise.

1999. Intel tutvustab Pentium III -protsessorit, AMD vastab Athloniga. Microsofti kohtuasi jätkub - leitakse, et firma on taotlenud monopoli ja kahjustanud tarbijate huve. MS saab aasta lõpuks valmis [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_2000">Windows 2000</a>.

2000. Y2K "Suur pauk" jääb siiski olemata. Protsessorite taktsagedused ületavad 1 GHz. Välja tuleb senisest kiirem USB 2.0 ning ilmuvad esimesed seda kasutavad andmekandjad (mälupulgad). Win 2000 tuleb välja üsna augulisena, SP-1 parandab ca 300 algvariandis esinenud viga. Ilmub ka [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_ME">Windows ME</a>, ilmselt seni kõige ebaõnnestunum Windowsi väljalase. WordPerfect Office 2000 for Linux on koos StarOffice'iga esimene tõsine Linuxi kontoripakett.

Uuel sajandil

2001. Protsessori taktsagedused lähevad üle 2 GHz, Tarkvaraturul jätkub Microsofti ülemvõim (ilmub [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_XP">Windows XP</a> ja Office XP), kuid Linuxi kontorirakendused muutuvad üha enam tõsiseltvõetavamateks. StarOffice muutub kommertstooteks, millele luuakse vaba paralleelversioon OpenOffice.org. [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_OS_X">MacOS X</a> sulatab kokku traditsioonilise Maci ja Unixi.

2002: Neti jaoks pole mõneski kohas enam traate vaja. Tshiili ja hiljem ka Venetsueela näitavad MSile viisakalt ust - pretsedent vaba tarkvara levikuks riiklikul tasandil. Apple otsustab võtta kasutusele Inteli toodetel põhineva riistvaraplatvormi. Eestis toob BSA kampaania "Ära riski - ela pingevabalt" Windowsilt Linuxile üle nii mõnegi äraehmatatud arvutihuvilise. Sülearvutid jõuavad tavakasutaja jaoks kättesaadavasse hinnaklassi. Microsoft alustab peale XP-d järgmise Windowsi väljatöötamist, esialgu lubatakse 2003. aastaks.

2003: Wireless-võrgud levivad kiiresti, ka püsiühenduste hulk kasvab - kuid juba on näha ka asja pahupool viiruste ja muu pättvara näol. Madin vaba tarkvara ümber jätkub - Microsoft kaotab SuSEle laialt vastukaja leidnud konkursi Müncheni linnavalitsuse tarkvaraga varustamiseks, vaba tarkvara jätkab kiiret levikut ka paljudes arenguriikides. Vastiku liigutusega saab hakkama [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCO_Group">SCO</a>, kelle kehv finantsseis viib väljapressimise teele - alustatakse protsessi Linuxi vastu, mille 2.4 kernelis olevat osa koodi SCO intellektuaalomand (protsessi tegelikuks motiiviks pakutakse soovi panna IBMi end tüli vältimiseks üles ostma). Kaheaastaseks saanud Openoffice.org hakkab riigiasutustes MS Office'ile tõsist konkurentsi pakkuma (mitmed vastavad otsused alates Vabariigi valitsusest ja lõpetades ülikoolidega). Aasta lõpus ilmub Linuxi uus 2.6 kernel, millega paraneb tublisti uute väljundseadmete tugi. Aasta algupoole GPRS-vaimustusele tõmbavad sidefirmad hinnatõusuga vee peale. Uus laiatarbe-Windows viibib (tõsi, 2003 Server ilmub enam-vähem plaanipäraselt), Microsoft leiab vabanduse - tegelikult teeme suuremaid muudatusi, kui alguses plaanisime. Kaks skandinaavia ärimeest asutavad Tallinnas koos mõnede eestlastest partneritega firma nimega Skype.

2004: SCO'l kipub aur otsa saama (2.4 kernel, kaebuste põhiohver, hakkab ka vaikselt minevikku vajuma). Euroopas käib lahing tarkvarapatentide ümber, Richard Stallman käib Euroopa-kampaania raames ka Tallinnas. Microsoft teeb Eestile "soodsa pakkumise". Püsiühenduste hinnad jätkavad Eestis langustrendi. Uued 2.6 kerneliga Linuxi distrod, Sun loob Solarise vaba variandi OpenSolaris. Kauaoodatud Windows XP SP2 sisaldab välja tulles omajagu auke ja keerab nässu hulga installatsioone (süüdi pole siiski mitte ainult Microsoft, vaid ka kehvade rakenduste tootjad), Longhorn aga viibib endiselt. Esmakordselt annab tõsise probleemina endast märku võrguräkit - eriti Inglismaal saavad mitmed võrguäriga tegelevad firmad väljapressimiskirju peamiselt Ida-Euroopa päritolu kuritegelikelt rühmitustelt; nõutakse raha ja keeldujate võrgusüsteemid lubatakse halvata. Endiselt jätkub sõda viiruste ja rämpspostiga.

2005 - Euroopas saavad tarkvarapatentide pooldajad lüüa, EP võtab kogu seaduse päevakorrast maha. Pättvaranuhtlus Windowsi süsteemides jätkub. Longhorni/Vistat pole endiselt (lubatakse 2006. aasta alguses). Algselt kevadel ilmuma pidanud OpenOffice.org 2.0 lükkub sügisesse. Mac annab Eesti turul natuke tugevamini märku. Brauseriturul jätkub Firefoxi surve IE-le. Linuxi maailmas teeb kiire tõusu uustulnuk [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ubuntu_%28operating_system%29">Ubuntu Linux</a>. Asutatakse YouTube ja mitmed muud populaarsed uue meedia lahendused. Google ostab ära Android Inc'i nimelise firma ja paneb aluse uuele edukale mobiilseadmete operatsioonisüstemile.

2006 - märtsikuus üritavad tarkvarapatentide pooldajad veel üht läbisurumist, seekord "patentide harmoniseerimise" nime all, ent Europarlament ei lase end enam lollitada. Pahavarauputus Windowsi peal jätkub. [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Vista">Windows Vista</a> hakkab viimaks valmima. Bill Gates teatab, et loobub kahe aasta jooksul järk-järgult põhikohaga tööst Microsoftis.. Nicholas Negroponte paneb aluse ühele väga põnevale projektile - arengumaade lastele suunatud [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olpc">OLPC</a>-nimelisele arvutile. Paraku jookseb see mõni aasta hiljem Microsofti sekkumise tõttu suuresti liiva.

2007 - Vista tuleb aasta algul välja, reaktsioonid on erinevad (hiljem peetakse seda Microsofti ämbriks nr 2 ME järel). Kevade poole oodatakse Euroopas uut suuremat patendilahingut, see aga jääb esialgu tulemata - aasta sisse aga jäävad mitmed madinad MS OOXML-vormingu ümber, mida too üritab kõrvuti OpenDocumentiga standardina läbi suruda. MS Office 2007 toob kaasa mitmeid uuendusi, kuid ka tavakasutajate kriitika pälvinud uue väljanägemise ja uue failivormingu, mis eelmiste samalaadsete liigutustega ettevaatlikuks tehtud tarbijaid üksjagu häirib. Eestit raputavad aprillimadinad ning nendega kaasnevad DDOS-rünnakud, esialgu pääseb riik suhteliselt kergelt. Aasta lõpupoole osutub MS Vista suurimaks konkurendiks hoopis Windows XP, mis on saavutanud suure leviku ega taha uuele tulijale kohta vabastada. Linuxi maailmas jätkub Ubuntu valitsemine. Kurikuulus SCO protsess näib viimaks läbi saavat, firma saab IBM-ilt kohtus lüüa. Google asutab Open Handset Alliance'i - Androidist hakkab kujunema tõsine kivi Microsofti ja Apple'i kingade sees.

2008 - aasta algul jätkub sõdimine OOXML vs ODF, mais aga teatab Microsoft ODF ametlikust toetamisest MS Office 2007 Service Pack 2-s, samas kui vahepeal suure lärmiga ISO standardiks saanud OOXML jõuab firma kinnitusel täiel määral MS Office'isse alles Office 14-ga (tollane kavandatav ilmumisaeg 2009 lõpp või 2010 algus). Aprillis ilmub Ubuntu järgmine pika toega versioon 8.04 LTS, mis saab üksjagu kriitikat ebaküpsuse eest. Bill Gates loobub täistöökohast Microsoftis ja pühendab põhijõu enda heategevusfondile. XP on endiselt Vista suurim komistuskivi, ehkki Microsoft lõpetab viimaks XP müügi uutele arvutitele. Apple loob MacOS X põhjal uue süsteemi nimega iPhone OS (hiljem iOS), iPhone levib edukalt üle maailma (sh Eestis). Gruusias toimub sõjaline konflikt, millele eelnevad ja kaasnevad samalaadsed ründed kui need, mis toimusid aasta eest Eestis.

2009 - Microsoft tuleb välja [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_7">Windows 7</a> nimelise vigade parandusega. MS peavaenlane on endiselt Google (Androidi turuosa kerkib aastaga paarilt protsendilt paarikümnele). Üle maailma jätkub kemplemine eri teemadel (net neutrality, privaatsus). Hirmus kino [L] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirate_bay">Pirate Bay</a> ümber. Sügisel levib uudis SCO elluäratamisest - ilmselt jätkub komöödia veel mõned aastad. IT Kolledzh hakkab arvutiklassides omamaist [L] <a href="http://www.estobuntu.org">Estobuntut</a> kasutama. Apple loobub PowerPC platvormist ja keskendub Intelile. Asutatakse Eesti IT Akadeemia. E-bay müüb (kahjudega) maha 2/3 varem kallilt soetatud Skype'ist.

2010 - Kurjad hiinlased kräkivad Google'i serveritesse, viimane pahandab ja ähvardab Keskriigist jalga lasta. Taani kehtestab ametlikult riigisfääris vabad failivormingud. Microsoft üritab CodePlexile vaba tarkvara maailmas laiemat toetust võita - sahistatakse sellestki, et tulevik võib ärimudelis suuremaid muudatusi tuua. Suni alla neelanud Oracle hakkab mitmete toodete litsentse kinni keerama ja alustab Google'i vastu kohtuteed, sellega aga pöörduvad mitmed vaba tarkvara projektid firma vastu ning näiteks OpenOffice.org'i põhitegijad otsustavad luua [L] <a href="http://www.documentfoundation.org/">eraldi sihtasutusel põhineva paralleelversiooni nimega LibreOffice</a>. Mobiilimaailmas on Androidist saanud selge liider. Vaba tarkvara aktivist ja juuraprofessor Eben Moglen asutab [L] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedombox">Freedomboxi</a> projekti, loomaks lihtsat ja odavat "demokraatiamasinat" tsensuuri ja erinevat sorti rõhumise vastu.

2011 - Windows XP turuosa langeb viimaks alla 50%. Mobiiliturul teevad endiselt ilma Android ja iOS. Microsoft sõlmib partnerlusleppe (~ ostab ära?) Nokia. Steve Jobs loobub tervise tõttu Apple'i juhtimisest. Linuxi maailmas tekib üksjagu kära graafiliste kasutajaliideste (Unity, Gnome 3) ümber. LibreOffice 3.4 on Oracle'i OO.o-ga võrreldes selge samm edasi, viimane loobub OO.o ärilisest arendamisest. IT Kolledzhist saab esimene Linux Professional Institute'i akadeemiline koolituspartner Põhja-Euroopas.


References

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Viiteid

For extra reading

  • CARLTON, J. Apple: The Inside Story of Intrigue, Egomania, and Business Blunders, Harper Paperbacks 1998. ISBN: 0887309658
  • FREIBERGER, P., SWAINE, M. Fire in the Valley: The Making of The Personal Computer, 2nd ed. McGraw-Hill 2000. ISBN: 0071358927
  • GATES, B. The Road Ahead. 2nd Revised ed. Pearson Elt 2008. ISBN: 140587932
  • ISAACSON, W. Steve Jobs. Simon & Schuster 2011. ISBN: 1451648537
  • LEVY, S. Hackers: Heroes of the Computer Revolution - 25th Anniversary Edition. O'Reilly 2010. ISBN: 1449388396
  • MOODY, G. Rebel Code: Linux And The Open Source Revolution. Basic Books 2002. ISBN: 0738206709
  • VISE, D., MAISEED, M. The Google Story: For Google's 10th Birthday. Delacorte Press 2008. ISBN: 0385342721